In 2022 it was impossible for Putin to use nukes, because launching nuclear weapons is one of the only thing in the Russia where the president really has no chance of deciding on things alone. Gerasimov is a professional soldier, and worked only because it’s his job. He has no actual values in play, except pride of being skilled at his job, and he will not allow his family to die just because of the Russia’s “honour” being violated. Similarly, Šojgu is a bootlicker who does everything for personal gain and the Moscow being obliterated by nukes is not something he sees as an acceptable price for anything at all. And in the Russia you need an order from the people in all of those three positions, or nothing will be launched.

Putin could never get Šojgu and Gerasimov to give such orders, and he knows that had he tried to, he would have lost his head almost immediately. Those people would have seen Putin as a direct threat to their loved ones, as would have most of who have any influence in the Russia. That would have been Putin’s end.

Now, the leadership of the military has been restructured to be more accommodating to Putin’s will, but it’s still not at a level where Putin can trust he’ll get both orders given by the other two people. And if he tries and fails … well, read above. His head will roll. Now he would actually have a chance of success, but he’s still maybe 80 % likely to fail if he tries. And actually… PACO.

Now is still a time when we can safely use military power against the Russia without a danger of a nuclear war. That time will not last forever, because Putin does want to use nukes and he is working to make it possible. He will, however, still need plenty more time for that. Luckily for him, especially Germans are giving it to him. Ironically, because they are afraid of nukes and don’t bother looking into how launching nukes works in the Russia.

Yes which is why it’s so important to react firmly to someone who’s deliberately playing brinksmanship with a nuclear-armed defensive alliance, so as to correctly pass the can-I-push-the-boundaries test Putin is giving here. This is like lesson #1 about dealing with bullies.

I think they should have shot down the fighters and then sent footage of the falling wreckage to Putin overlaid with the “Curb Your Enthusiam” music and fade out with “Stay in your own airspace pls and thank you.”