- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
Russian Il-20M reconnaissance plane ignored requests to make contact, in latest of what are seen as provocative acts by Kremlin
Two German Eurofighter jets were scrambled on Sunday to intercept a Russian military aircraft above the Baltic Sea, as Estonia said it would call an emergency meeting of the UN security council after Russian planes violated its airspace.
Germany’s air force said the Russian Il-20M reconnaissance plane had switched off its transponders and ignored requests to make contact. The Eurofighters took off from the Rostock-Laage airbase to head off the aircraft as it flew in international airspace.
Tensions between Nato and Russia have been dramatically rising after a series of what European governments say are deliberate, provocative acts by the Kremlin. On Friday, three Russian MiG-31 fighters violated Estonian airspace in the Gulf of Finland. Moscow denies this.
You must log in or register to comment.
A lot of people here encouraging shooting down a plane flying in international airspace. I suspect a lot of you are of the same mindset where it’s OK to shoot random boats in the Caribbean and kill everyone on board.
Don’t follow the war hawks ffs.
I think there a difference between a civilian plane and a military one.
I’m fine shooting down hostile fighter jets the second they cross into sovereign airspace, and not a moment sooner.
the Soviets used to fly fighters close to Western airspace to probe our defenses. we’d intercept, and if they crossed over we’d take them down. this is nothing new.
Shoot it down. That cunt putin won’t do it again in a hurry.
Turkey didn’t hesitate and doesn’t have any more problems with Russians violating their airspace.
“But it would put NATO law into questioning” the fuck is he going to do about that? Send more of his men to die wearing trash bags running in open fields?
I don’t understand. If he can’t even take down the Ukraine, how does he expect to take on NATO nations?
Flying a spy plane over the Baltic with transponders off isn’t random; it’s deliberate pressure. These flights let Russia probe NATO’s readiness, time responses, and gather electronic intelligence when allied radars and comms light up. They also normalize risk: forcing constant intercepts drains resources and tests cohesion among allies.
At home, the Kremlin can showcase defiance; abroad, it signals that even after Sweden joined NATO, Russia will not accept being boxed out of the Baltic. The aim is not a direct clash but erosion of deterrence, unity, and stamina. By staying in the “gray zone,” Moscow keeps initiative, trying to distract support for Ukraine, stress-test NATO, and look for weak links it can exploit.
They also normalize risk: forcing constant intercepts drains resources and tests cohesion among allies.
it also keeps defensive forces sharp, by giving them practice, and strengthens cohesion by highlighting the shared threat NATO protects its members from.
the Soviets did this for decades. it’s still part of their military doctrine, I guess. though it seems counterproductive to me.
Yeah all countries do that, but the end game still doesn’t make sense to me.
There may not be a clear end game, but sometimes just stirring things up is the point. It creates openings and exposes weaknesses, and that in itself can serve as a strategy. He has very little to risk compared to what he might gain, so constant provocation makes sense from his perspective.
What’s the aim here?
Testing the west?
Numbing NATOs reaction through repetition? - crying wolf repeatedly worked well for Hamas, but it is a bit different here.
Some domestic politics related demonstration of power like Sapad25?Yes, yes, yes, and also trying to scare European countries into not supporting Ukraine, either out of fear for further angering Russia, or fear that they need their equipment closer to home.
Sounds plausible. Thanks
William Spaniel speculates on his YouTube channel that Putin might want to provoke a shoot down to then claim NATO is the agressor. Which he may hope would rally his own people into accepting another conscription wave.
He’s losing the war and is thus expecting a loss of support for the war. So he needs to extend the war or he’s dead. And he cannot just attack another country again.
What we need to do is exactly the opposite of what he wants us to do. Which I think we are doing.
Game theory? He needs the west to do what he told his people the west would do?
But he doesn’t need the NATO to actually attack to substantiate his rhetoric. Or does he?
That’s it! This time they are not getting away with it. WE’RE CALLING A FUCKING MEETING!
- NATO
It wasn’t in NATO airspace though, that was the one last week.
I guess whoever the person calling the meeting is should just skip the meeting and unilaterally attack Russia?
Are you suggesting they are calling the meeting to organize an attack on Russia? I hope not because that’s ridiculous.
They will be discussing how NATO should respond to provocations from Russia, something they should already know. NATO should have communicated clear red lines and how they will respond to Russia violating them 3 years ago, not start thinking about it today.
You sound angry they want to have a meeting instead of doing something. What is it you want them to do that doesn’t involve having a meeting?
I’m not angry, I just think NATO looks more and more pathetic. Russia communicates clear red lines and when those are crossed they retaliate. So for example Russia already said that they will target any NATO troops in Ukraine - BEFORE any NATO troops were officially sent there. NATO on the other hand always waits for Russia to escalate and then starts thinking how to respond. And they usually respond by asking Russia not to do it again. So what NATO should do is to tell Russia how they will respond in advanced and then follow through. This way Russia would think twice before escalating. But because NATO is so weak Russia started sending drones into Poland and weeks later they are sending airplanes.
You think they only just started sending planes? They’ve been doing this shit for more than ten years. Not only with planes but with boats, submarines…
See, now you’ve got a problem. If you’d shot down the first one, Russia would have made a big noise and then it would have been fine. Now that you didn’t, now it’s weird if you start shooting them down.
My advice is to just be straight about it: Publicly announce what the line is where you’ll shoot them down, and then stick to it. Even if you just announced a date when the shooting-down will start any time they enter NATO airspace, that might be fine. But you have to stick to it. Right now you’re trying to figure out how to make them stop without shooting them down, and that approach just doesn’t work. Like you’re all surprised they don’t establish radio contact. Bro… that is not the game you are engaged in.
(You might also want to confiscate $10 billion in frozen Russian assets to give to Ukraine for each incursion, just to respond to what’s already happened… but again without shooting them down it’s not going to accomplish anything. The money’s already gone honestly, and they know that, they’re just waiting for you to figure it out and go through your whole “process” and make it official, and they think you’re stupid and weak for every year that goes by that you’re not doing that.)
It comes down to realization that despite Ukrainian politicians seeking those “security guarantees” from allies it’s actually the other way around - Ukraine is the security guarantee of Europe, and right now Russians do such bold shit, because they think that Ukraine’s defense is about to crumble, so they are already preparing to move further.
So folks being afraid to shoot down Russians who violate their borders simply because they can - is an expected consequence of “we can’t help Ukraine, because it’ll lead to escalation”, while there’s just one side doing the escalation, and it’s not Ukraine.
so they are already preparing to move further.
They are barely managing the war with ukraine and you want me to believe they are moving further than that? EU countries combined are matching already russia military expenses, they are looking for excuses to boost war industry even more. Check the data and watch out for propaganda.
EU countries combined are matching already russia military expenses
Check the data
The US plus all partners has sent about $150 billion in total, it looks like, up until the middle of last year: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/ About half of that is EU, so say $75 billion from the EU.
Russia spends about $500 billion per year: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/12/russias-2024-military-spending-surpassed-eu-uk-combined-in-ppp-terms-study-a87974 They have mobilized basically their entire economy to try to win this thing.
What is your source for saying the EU alone is matching Russia? The EU is barely paying attention to the war, because of complacency and a subtle racism. But the idea that the EU is pulling out all the stops like Russia is, or prioritizing making their “defense” contractors rich in this as the US is wont to do, is absurd.
and watch out for propaganda.
Can do! I think I might have found some, I’m not sure.
Thank you.
Many folks fail to realize that it absolutely doesn’t hurt Putin to send another one or two million of his people to die for his delusions of grandeur. It’s not like he’s gonna have to start selling his mansions because Russia goes through economic hardships or that his own kids gonna get drafted.
If Russia did things that are logical - they wouldn’t invade Ukraine in the first place, not to mention that their invasion and annexations are illegal even by Russian laws and constitution that Putin can rewrite at his whim, but absolutely nobody cares. So expecting a country that breaks its own laws while being an autocracy to follow logic is foolish at best.
Yeah. I’m not exactly a geopolitics-man, but my best guess for what’s going on with Putin and Russia’s strategy here is:
- He’d been doing fine with taking over small countries up until 2022, and it generally gave him opportunities for new goodies to give away to his friends and also it’s exciting and makes him look like a winner
- He’s been surrounded by yes men for so long that he’s lost his ability to really tell what are good strategies, what is happening, or what’s likely to happen in the future
I think the combination means that he’s just kind of telling his military to do whatever, including invading Ukraine thinking it would go about the same way as Georgia, Crimea, Chechnya, and the US elections. I do think he benefits from a certain amount of native cunning in this particular brinksmanship with NATO, and of course it doesn’t take too much detailed understanding of facts on the ground to just fly some planes around in their airspace and flip people off, but also I think in general this latest chapter of Russia is just a pretty good demonstration of why authoritarianism doesn’t make for effective countries.
What is your source for saying the EU alone is matching Russia?
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_highest_military_expenditures
They spend about the same in dollars, the article you linked adjust the price to PPP. We could argue all day about this adjustments but there’s no need to do it: we are not looking for the country that win the spending race, we are observing that both russia and EU countries are armed to the teeth and already dumping billions of money in war. It sound foolish to believe russia has plans to attack and invade a faction that match their military spending, they would be heading for a war they have no guarantee of winning and that could result in the complete defeat of their country. On the other hand it’s quite reasonable to think EU governments are using fear as a leverage to gain power and wealth (the same shit that russia government does to justify their spending)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_highest_military_expenditures
The EU is barely paying attention to the war,
They pay attention to it every second with endless surveillance missions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eastern_Sentry
https://www.itamilradar.com/2025/09/21/e-550-caew-missions-in-the-baltic-10-days-of-tracking/
- I was talking about how much they’re spending on the Ukraine war, not how much they’re spending in general. Obviously the EU’s economy dwarfs Russia’s so of course they’re going to spend more on their military in general, it’s only even competitive because of PPP and because Russia has mobilized its entire country more or less into a war economy for the Ukraine war
- PPP is the correct way to compare dollar values between countries, most of the time, doing otherwise gives wildly misleading values for a lot of comparisons
- “It sound foolish to believe Russia has plans to attack” my guy they are literally “attacking,” they are literally moving their units into enemy territory (and then back out) right now
- “they would be heading for a war they have no guarantee of winning” I have bad news for you about what it means historically when the massive nation is invading a small country that didn’t do anything to it, and the war is still going on with no progress several years in. That’s not just “no guarantee of winning” territory at that point…
I actually do see another possibility beyond what I said: I think it’s also possible that Russia has decided on war with NATO, and is doing provocations so the other party will have to be the one to “officially start” the war and then they can “retaliate.” That’s part of why I was saying it would be smart for NATO to establish very clear ahead-of-time guidelines and then stick to them, so there’s no escalation by mistake once missiles do start flying around. Anyway that type of behavior is a time-honored tradition especially for democratic countries that have to worry about the public perception (US with Japan before WW2, US with Vietnam at Tonkin Gulf, Israel at all times…). I don’t think that’s what they are doing for a couple of reasons, but it’s the only other explanation besides what I said that makes any sense to me.
Of course they are moving ahead. A billion in EU buys many times less than the same billion does in russia. Furthermore, russia has never - at least in the last two-three lifetimes - acted logically. A failed/miscalculated/etc attempt at an invasion still brings death and destruction.
A billion in EU buys many times less than the same billion does in russia.
Think about why it does
Furthermore, russia has never - at least in the last two-three lifetimes - acted logically
Governments and rulers do not follow me and you logic, they act for themself and according to their interests
A billion in EU buys many times less than the same billion does in russia.
Think about why it does
Because no one in their right mind wants rubles, so money comparisons that involve rubles have to be corrected back to reality before the values actually match. If you go by the exchange rate alone, you might as well be comparing dollars to lollipops or something.
This would entitle russia to shot down all the planes that enter their airspace
Oh wait lol
Russia is already shooting down anything that enters their airspace (or trying to, mostly succeeding). As well as lots and lots of things which are outside their airspace including civilian airliners sometimes. It’s only in NATO-land that it’s this big crisis like “oh no oh no whatever shall we do.”
They just recently got into big beef with Azerbaijan because they shot down Azerbaijani civilian airliner and instead of apologizing and offering compensations to victim’s families - they just got “wait did you expect flying in here?”.
So yeah, not like any decisions now gonna change anything since their practice of being terrorists who shoot down civilian aircraft dates back to at least 2014.
All the NATO reconnaissance aircraft that enter their airspace? I think they already do that, as best they can.
Lol
NATO jets arent the ones violating other countries airspaces, Im pretty sure they already have this line of thinking anyway. I mean they shoot down civilian airliners anyway.
I think it’s time the EU collectively takes Kaliningrad. Then Russia has no more pretext for flying around there and every violation becomes a proper act of aggression.
(am I joking? Well I’m definitely not a military expert)
Honestly feels like this should be a given once Putin falls, in the grand scheme of things.
Biggest question is whether it would be absorbed into Poland or Lithuania, or become its own SAR under the EU.
Historically it has been offered to Lithuania few times and every time the offer was declined. There’s a lot of ethnic Russians and with Lithuania having small population would had caused many internal problems probably similar events as in Crimea would had happened and struggle for the independence had been much harder.
Not sure what SAR means but yeah, I meant something collectively owned by EU. Maybe their biggest defense base.
(I’m still just fantasizing)
I meant it as Special Autonomous/Administrative Region, akin to how Hong Kong used to be prior to the Chinese Government crackdowns.
So ostensibly a self-governing region.
It’s a nice fantasy, which I’ll happily share with you.
How long is literally everybody going to let Russia get away with these stupid stunts?
How long until Russia doesn’t have nukes?
Are they gonna risk trading nukes over a plane? They shot some passenger planes without getting any punishment.
at this point I’d be surprised if any of them still work.
I’d be surprised if a significant number of them worked.
But that “any” carries a lot of baggage.
And that’s what we call Russian roulette
Weird how Putin doesn’t seem affected by Trump’s aura of respect that would prevent him from daring to attack the West like Donnie claimed he was.
I’d not be surprise if that was a USA conspiracy to sell weapons to EU
More like conspiring to sell weapons to Russia and supporting them, republicans hate the EU.
republicans hate the EU
sources?
Biggest contributor in money and weapons to the Ukraine war is the US, what are you talking about?
Too many weaselly people-pleasers making the decisions so they back off instead of risking a little apocalyptic super-war. Now we get this “I’m not touching you (with guns and missiles (yet))” bullshit that drags on forever instead. Enough foreplay and edging, it’s time to fuck.
~i don’t want to be fucked~
I guess it’s time to move battleships into the black sea ( which should have been done a long time ago)
Nato and USA have been surveilling the black sea daily for the past decade probably
https://www.itamilradar.com/2025/08/28/us-poseidon-intercepted-over-the-black-sea/
Turkey’s Bosohorus treaty doesn’t allow it.
