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Cake day: July 4th, 2023

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  • US Physician here. The efforts I place into keeping a patient with capacity in the hospital vary directly to the concern I have about their pathology. There is a very real subset of people who have capacity, i.e. have the mental faculties about them that I cannot legally or ethically place them under a medical hold for treatment, who clearly do not comprehend the gravity of their situation or the likelihood they will die if they leave. I have unfortunately seen a number of patients who require significant amounts of supplemental oxygen, IV medications to support their blood pressure, life-threatening infections requiring IV antibiotics, etc, who for whatever reason decide they don’t want to be in the hospital anymore. Discontinuation of this life support puts their life at near-immediate risk, but the folks that are usually trying to leave in these situations are angry, distrusting of the medical system, and very goal-oriented on what they want to leave the hospital for (food because they’re NPO, illicit substance use, smoking, care for their dog, etc) to the point that they’re capable of saying “yeah yeah I can die whatever fucker, unhook me and let me leave.” These patients deserve for me to sit down with them and try and have a conversation about what we can do to keep them in the hospital because I’m worried they physically won’t make it through the hospital doors before they lose consciousness.

    There are also people who have capacity, want to leave for whatever reason, and aren’t literally gonna die in 5 minutes. They get papers and a pat on the back as they walk out the door.

    All of this hinges on a patient’s decision making capacity, and the reason every single time you want to leave the hospital against medical advice (AMA) you have to talk to one of the treating doctors is they have to determine if you have capacity at the time you’re making that decision. To be allowed to leave the hospital AMA you have to be able to demonstrate that you can understand why you’re in the hospital, the risks of leaving the hospital AMA, and hold consistent and logical (not necessarily rational) positions on decisions/priorities. If you can’t do any one of those things, you by definition don’t have medical decision making capacity, and I am not only legally allowed to, but I’m ethically obligated to keep you in the hospital to be treated until either a surrogate decision maker with capacity can be identified OR you have return of your capacity after your illness improves and we have this conversation again.







  • It’s not that we don’t use mode, there are definitely times mode is used. It’s just that mean (and median as well) contain a lot more useful information about distributions that we often care about. For a normal distribution mean, median, and mode should all be identical. So why do we use mean? Because mathematically, the mean is what underpins the formula for the normal distribution, not median or mode, and when you’re talking about doing math with normal distributions mean is the thing to talk about (along with standard deviation).

    We use median a lot too, you probably just don’t hear it called median very often. The median is useful in non-normal distributions, and it defines the 50th percentile, so along with the 25%-ile and 75%-ile you’ve got your quartile distributions. We use these all the time to talk about grades in schools, or when we talk about home prices distributions in a given area, or salaries within a given field.

    We use mode too, again just by a different name most of the time. Any time you’ve asked “what’s the most common blank” you’re basically asking for a mode. When we talk about “average” income in a country, we’re usually actually talking about median or mode. Favorite animal? Answered as a mode.

    You have to use the right statistical tool for your question: unfortunately English doesn’t do a good job of conveying this without math jargon.






  • If I was guessing, in general, I think people who advocate for a pure meritocracy in the USA feel the world should be evaluated in more black and white, objective terms. The financial impact and analytic nature of STEM and finance make it much easier to stratify practitioners “objectively” in comparison to finding, for instance, the “best” photographer. I think there is also a subset of US culture that thinks that STEM is the only “real” academic group of fields worth pursuing, and knowledge in liberal arts is pointless -> not contributing to society -> not a meaningful part of the meritocracy. But I’m no expert.


  • As a general rule, yes. People who are able to better perform a task should be preferentially allocated towards those tasks. That being said, I think this should be a guiding rule, not a law upon which a society is built.

    For one, there should be some accounting for personal preference. No one should be forced to do something by society just because they’re adept at something. I think there is also space within the acceptable performance level of a society for initiatives to relax a meritocracy to some degree to help account for/make up for socioeconomic influences and historical/ongoing systemic discrimination. Meritocracy’s also have to make sure they avoid the application of standardized evaluations at a young age completely determining an individual’s future career prospects. Lastly, and I think this is one of common meritocracy retorhic’s biggest flaws, a person’s intrinsic value and overall value to society is not determined by their contributions to STEM fields and finance, which is where I think a lot of people who advocate for a more meritocracy-based society stand.





  • I mean if the only way they’re gonna have jobs is through predatory hiring practices that could leave them fired and without severance, then yeah. Because if the company is planning on hiring these younger workers for the long-haul, then this shouldn’t be a significant change. I think overall national policy should discourage unnecessary high-turnover and predatory hiring. I’m sure there will be situations this is still unavoidable, but that doesn’t mean we have to endorse it by way of law/policy.


  • I’m going to digress from the economics a tad and focus on the ethics of this. I feel like companies should be on the hook for this. You should invest in capital (including human labor) based on your confidence in its expected return. Companies should not be able to hire a myriad of workers for funzies and not have to meaningfully consider if that person will be necessary in 6 months. If it is a legitimate business venture, then the cost of potential severance for new hires should be folded into the economics of the decision to pursue that venture. Larger severance pay/worker protections encourage employers to not utilize exploitative hiring practices.


  • It depends on the half life of the element in question. The most comparable concrete thing we can compare this to with real numbers because we know it works is an RTG. RTGs are solid-state generators, but people could colloquially refer to them as “batteries” and not be terribly wrong. They take a quantity of a radioactive material and allow it to decay, using the heat given off to establish a thermal gradient which is then converted to electricity via thermocouples. Most of these are “fueled” with Pu-238 (at least the ones for spacecraft), which has a half life of 87.7 years. That means in 87.7 years, if you started with 4kg of Pu when you built it, you’d have only 2kg of Plutonium left. If the Pu decayed only into stable isotopes (it doesn’t) then your radioactive emissions/decay would also be exactly halved at this time. If the electrical system is perfectly efficient this would also halve the electrical power produced.

    I provide this all as background because to answer your question you have to know three key factors about the device to determine the lifetime of the battery. The half-life of the isotope used, the minimum electrical requirements of the device you’re powering, and the amount of radioactive material in the initial battery. The battery’s lifetime is determined by when decay will decrease the ongoing energy output below the minimum current and voltage requirements needed by the battery. The longer the half life of the isotope, the slower this decrease is and the less initial overpowering that is required.

    Ex. If you use an isotope with a 12.5 year half life for a “50-year” battery, you would need to start with 8 times the material needed for your minimum power output requirements. If you use an isotope with a 200 year half life, you only need 19% more starting mass than you minimum requirement. The first battery will produce 8x the power at the very beginning, while the second will only produce 18% more.